Series Preview: Dallas Stars vs. Detroit Red Wings

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Here's a preview of the Western Conference Finals series between the Dallas Stars and Detroit Red Wings. 

Stars-Red Wings Preview

Overview
It's been ten years since the Dallas Stars and Detroit Red Wings last met in the playoffs. Like this time around, that 1998 meeting was in the Western Conference Finals. The Red Wings won that one in six games. They had won two previous meetings with the Stars in the playoffs (1995 & 1992), giving them a perfect 3-0 record against the Stars franchise in postseason play.

Since Dave Tippett took over as head coach in 2002, the Stars haven't enjoyed much success against the Red Wings in the regular season, posting a 4-11-5 record overall and a 2-6-2 record at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit.

The Red Wings won three of four from the Stars during the regular season, including both games in Detroit.

This will be the first meeting between the two teams in the playoffs in the Tippett era. This is the farthest the Stars have gotten in the playoffs under Tippett and the first time the team has been to a Conference Finals since 2000.

The Red Wings are making their second straight appearance in the Conference Finals, where they lost in six games last year to Anaheim.

The Stars got here by knocking off the defending Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks in the first round and then toppling San Jose, a Stanley Cup favorite to many, in the second round.

The Red Wings knocked off division rival Nashville in six games and then swept an injury plagued Colorado Avalanche team in the second round.

Both teams come in relatively healthy, or at least as healthy as a team can be at this point in the season. Detroit has a full lineup except for forward Tomas Kopecky, who is out for the season following knee surgery.

The Stars have two question marks going into the series. Forward Stu Barnes (concussion-like symptoms) and defenseman Philippe Boucher (hip) are skating and traveling with the team, but are doubtful to open the series on Thursday. 

Goaltending
Detroit's Chris Osgood and Dallas' Marty Turco rank first and second respectively in goals against average so far in the playoffs, and both have been rock solid.

Turco, who is playing with a great deal of confidence and at a very high level, has catapulted the playoff monkey off his back thanks to his performance this season and his showing in last season's series against Vancouver. But he still an issue with Detroit. He is 2-10-5 lifetime against the Red Wings and 0-7-2 in Joe Louis Arena. That's one last hurdle for him to clear, but his play right indicates he could be ready to do it.

Osgood came in to relieve Dominik Hasek in the first round series against Nashville and all he has done is posted a 6-0 record. Osgood is often underappreciated, but he's a very good goalie and has a Stanley Cup (1998) on his resume. A lot of people remember that Jamie Langenbrunner goal back in 1998, but a lot of people forget he shutout the Stars in the next game to win the series. That's resiliency. That's Osgood. He's also 27-10-3 in his career against the Stars.

Advantage: Dallas. Osgood's a very good goalie, but Turco is at the top of his game right now and has proved it against two top teams.
Defensemen
The return of Sergei Zubov after a three-month absence due a variety of injury issues has been a big boost to a Dallas blue line that had already been playing well thanks to Stephane Robidas, whose game has blossomed this season, and veteran Mattias Norstrom, who has performed superbly in the playoffs. Throw in some solid performances from some of the Stars' young defensemen and the help the group gets from Turco's puckhandling ability, and it's been a very good postseason for the Dallas blue line.

The Red Wings defense starts with Nicklas Lidstrom, who is the best defenseman in the league. Throw in guys like Brian Rafalski, Brad Stuart (an excellent deadline acquisition), a physical Niklas Kronwall, Chris Chelios and Brett Lebda, and you have the makings of a deep, talented set of top six defensemen. Those defensemen are also providing some offensive punch, led by Kronwall (8 assists), Lidstrom (2 goals, 5 assists) and Rafalski (1 goal, 6 assists).

Advantage: Detroit. The Red Wings the edge in talent and depth. 
Forwards
There is a lot of talent and depth on both sides. The Stars have a strong presence up the middle with Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards and Mike Modano. The top line of Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow and Jere Lehtinen has been one of the best and most productive lines in the postseason, combining for 14 goals and 19 assists. Richards' line, which has usually featured Joel Lundqvist and Loui Eriksson, has been very effective and has produced some key goals. Modano's line has changed a bit due to the injury to Barnes, but it's produced as well. And all three lines can defend as well. The Stars have received goals from 11 different forwards.

The Red Wings are deep and talented up front as well. They have gotten goals from ten different forwards, and their top two lines have been very productive. Top line forwards Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, who are both Selke Finalists due to their defensive prowess, have combined for 26 points (12 goals, 14 assists) through the first two rounds. Crease lizard Tomas Holmstrom is on that line as well. Second line wing Johan Franzen leads the playoffs with 11 goals. The Red Wings third line of Dan Cleary, Kris Draper and Dallas Drake has popped in a few goals as well.

Advantage: Even. Both teams have a lot of talent and depth.
Special Teams
The Stars have the highest ranked power play of the teams remaining in the playoffs and it's not just the percentage. The Stars power play has had the knack of scoring the big goal at the right time. Their penalty kill has allowed just two goals over the last seven games and is 26-28 (92.9%) during that stretch.

The Red Wings power play was so-so in the first round series against Nashville, going 3-22 over the six games. It caught fire against the depleted Avalanche, hitting on 7-23 chances. Detroit's penalty kill, on average, has been good in the playoffs, but it struggled towards the end of the Colorado series. It will need to clean that up against Dallas or it could be an issue.

Advantage: Dallas. The Stars' special teams have been a big difference maker in their wins over the Ducks and Sharks.
Coaching
After a lot of regular season success, Stars coach Dave Tippett is finally getting some results in the postseason. He had his team well prepared going into the playoffs and that was key to getting an early jump on the Ducks in the first round. He had to make some adjustments in the second round due a changing injury situation, but kept everything running smoothly as the Stars toppled the Sharks in a hard-fought series.

Detroit's Mike Babcock, whose intense style is a contrast to Tippett's usually more laid back approach, has an impressive track record. In his first season as an NHL coach he led the Ducks to the 2003 Stanley Cup Finals. He's led Detroit to three-straight 50-win seasons and has them in in the Western Conference Finals for a second straight season. He's also a finalist for the Jack Adams Award, which goes to the league's top coach.

Advantage: Even. Babcock's got the slightly better track record, but Tippett's just as good a coach.
Intangibles
The Stars have followed the harder road to get this far, having beaten both the Ducks and the Sharks, and the Red Wings will have been off a full week when the series finally gets rolling Thursday evening in Detroit. That may give the Stars an early advantage in the series and a chance to get a jump on the Red Wings.
Advantage: Dallas
Outlook
The Red Wings, the best team over the long course of the regular season, will come in as the favorites in this one. They have home ice advantage. They have had the number of the Stars and Marty Turco the past several seasons. But that was the regular season and that was a different Dallas team.

With the Wings coming off a long layoff and not a lot of resistance from Colorado in round two, the Stars might have an opening to steal a game in Detroit. Can they win two to open the series the way they did in Anaheim and San Jose? Probably not. But one win in Detroit in those first two games, especially the first one, would be huge.

The Stars are playing their best hockey right now and Turco, despite his past woes against the Wings and in Detroit, is a goalie on a roll and brimming with confidence.

Goaltending is always key in a series and so are special teams. Both those appear to tilt the Stars way right now, and if that holds up then the Stars will be in a position to knock off another one of the big teams in the West.

Prediction: Dallas in 6


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