Armstrong's extension
So Doug Armstrong gets a nice contract extension. I found this quote from Tom Hicks interesting:
"Doug has done an outstanding job in maintaining a level of excellence and has built a competitive roster over the last two summers in the new salary cap era."
Of course we are still in the early phases of the salary cap era and it will take a while to see how Armstrong fares over the long term. But right now, Hicks has every right to be satisfied.
If I'm Hicks and I am looking around the league, I'd be thinking the same thing. That's especially the case when looking at the Stars rivals in Detroit and Colorado.
Despite the Stars losing to Colorado in two straight playoff series, I think the Stars are in better shape as of right now. The Stars and the Red Wings have both struggled in the playoffs recently, but right now I am wondering about the Red Wings because of their goaltending situation. Perhaps they can land Martin Biron in a trade with Buffalo.
But if you think about it, Armstrong has fared very well as far as the cap goes and maintaining a competitive team. We'll have to see how this season's edition does, but it there is potential there.
All the fuzzy warm talk was nice at the press conference yesterday, but it is just talk. The Stars should be a good team, but they'll be seeing a lot of a couple of other potentially good teams.
The Pacific Division is going to be tough. I think both Anaheim and San Jose are both shaping up to be strong teams and, along with the Stars, it should be a real battle. The Pacific should be the toughest divison in the West and perhaps in the league.
26 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Sabres fans unite
Remember that "No Goal" web site after the Stars-Sabres Stanley Cup Final in 1999? Well a Buffalo fan is at it again. This time the target is the Sabres' rumored new logo. The site is titled "Fix The Logo." You can find it at www.fixthelogo.com.
I thought the guy who came up with the "No Goal" site really wanted to just meet girls and make some money. I was OK with that. They are worthy goals.
This time around it may be a protest against the unknown. Nobody -- except those in the know -- really know what the Sabres' new look will actually entail.
Perhaps the leak of a partial logo was a trial balloon. You can gague reaction and go from there. Teddy Roosevelt would be proud.
Here's an
article from the Buffalo News on the logo flap.
22 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Odds & Ends
In case you are wondering, Niko Kapanen got a nice raise with his new deal with the Atlanta Thrashers. It's a two-year contract worth $1.7 million. That's $850,000 per year or a $400,000 raise over what he was making.
The word out of Atlanta is still that Niko may be the second line center and have Marian Hossa and Slava Kozlov as his wings. No problem with that.
"Of course that sounds good when you say guys like Hossa, Kozlov," Kapanen told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "They are some of the best players in the league. If you can play with those guys, of course, it's nice and an honor to play with them. Like you say, that's what you think. You really don't know what the coach thinks. Hopefully, he thinks in the same way."
Kevin Allen of USA Today has a decent article on team's dealing with the salary cap this summer.
There's an interesting quote from Atlanta GM Don Waddell.
"Teams spent a lot of money this summer," said Atlanta Thrashers general manager Don Waddell. "I can only speak for Atlanta, but our concern was to stay away from four- or five-year deals, because we don't know where the cap is headed."
That's a good point, because where the cap may be going is anyone's guess. The only reason it jumped by $5 million for 2006-07 is because of the doom and gloom revenue projections for 2005-06.
Revenues for 2005-06 were basically on par for 2003-04. That's impressive coming out of the lockout. I don't see them shooting up considerably next season and that means the cap probably won't be going up a lot either.
It's another reason why Doug Armstrong was wise not to give out big money long-term contracts to free agents.
21 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
The Big E
Well, Lindros is finally signed, sealed and delivered. I still don't have a problem with it for all the reasons I stated before. I think it is worth the risk.
I think the Stars' forward lines look a little better with him penciled it at the No. 2 center spot. I think the depth is good and I think there is the potential there to roll four good lines.
I don't think what Lindros is getting as far as the base salary or the potential bonuses is that big of a hit. The base salary is a great price and if the he earns all the bonuses then he's delivered in part and the team has progressed over the past couple years.
Still, I look at this season like a house of cards. A lot of things are going to have to go right. Some things go wrong, cards will start to fall and the whole thing may topple.
Lindros is going to have to stay healthy. All these new guys are going to have to fit. That may not happen overnight.
As I've mentioned before, guys who had big season last season are going to have to have big seasons again. Some guys like Miettinen and Ott are going to have to do more.
The Stars as a team, not just Lindros, are going to have to avoid the injury bug. They avoided that last season. They may not be as fortunate this season.
And I wonder why in a league that is trending younger that the Stars have opted to get older? Maybe it's a lack of confidence in their youth. Maybe it's just another phase in the transition.
To move from where the Stars were at the end of last season to where they want to be next summer requires some risk. It wasn't going to be a completely smooth transition.
18 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Lindros worth the risk?
Yeah. I think so. If the money is right, which means around the $1.55 million he made last season, then I believe he is worth the risk for the Stars. It's not like he is blowing their cap space out this year or down the road. He would be a stop gap signing in what is basically a year of transition (Doug Armstrong's term) for the Stars.
The Stars are caught moving from the old system to the new system. The change wasn't going to be accomplished in one year. Last year they had a team that should have competed for the Stanley Cup and it failed. To keep that team together for another run and hope it could succeed this time around would have come at a significant cost in the long run.
So that has left his season as a transition year as Armstrong waits for next summer when a younger crop of free agents will hit the market. That's when he wants to be a player in the market. That's why he wasn't a big player in this summer's market. That's OK. I can buy his reasoning and I am not going to play the 20/20 hindsight game if it backfires. I understand why he's doing what he is doing. Long-term strategy is another matter, but that is an issue for down the road.
That doesn't mean this season is a waste or that Armstrong is throwing it away. He's still trying to build a competitive team and adding Lindros, although "Big E" is a big risk, has the potential to pay some benefits. You've got your second line center, you are not giving up any assets and you still have those assets and the cap space to make moves during the season.
Those are things you can work with if he gets injured, which is, as we all know, a possibility. Hey, if he plays 60 games and delivers 45 to 50 points, that's 50 points this team doesn't have right now.
Dallas wouldn't be a bad fit for Lindros. There would be little pressure on him here. He wouldn't be in hockey mad Toronto. He wouldn't be battling with Bob Clarke the way he had to in Philly. The Dallas spotlight isn't quite like that of New York.
Lindros can just play and be left alone for the most part. He'd just blend in to the Dallas landscape. It may be good for him. It could be good for the Stars. It could be a disaster. But I think it is worth the risk.
15 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Lindros
Found this little tidbit on Eric Lindros in this morning's Globe and Mail:
According to National Hockey League sources, Lindros has made visits to Dallas to listen to a pitch from Stars management and to Edmonton to discuss a possible future with the Oilers. The New York Islanders also are believed to have interest in No. 88.
Well, there's a second line center and Armstrong wouldn't have to bust the budget. The Leafs are offering Lindros, who would like to stay in Toronto, $750,000. The Globe and Mail reports:
But Lindros, 33, who earned $1.55-million last season, figures he is worth at least what fourth-liner Tie Domi made last year, $1.25-million. Domi has since been bought out.
Stay tuned I guess.
14 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Odds & Ends
Got an e-mail this morning advertising a chat about the "Stars and more" with Morning News columnist Tim Cowlishaw this afternoon on the DMN web site. There must not have been much of an initial response as far as e-mail questions. It's now been changed to a generic sports chat about the "Mavericks, Rangers, Cowboys and more."
That leads me to Jennifer Floyd Engel of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, who had some thoughts over the weekend on the Stars' off-season moves. On the one hand she understands Doug Armstrong's decisions and then on the other hand she is concerned about one big potential drawback. She writes:
The problem for the Stars is winning young actually requires you to have young talent. I am not sure they do, and they cannot afford to wait until next off-season, when young talent can be acquired in free agency.
The Stars need to win now.
What Army and The Frisco Kids seem to be forgetting is hockey is teetering on the brink of fringe status in this market. Anybody in Stars management who does not see this needs to ask themselves: Why is hardly anybody kicking our butts about this lame off-season?
Give up?
Because few care.
If the Cowboys or Mavericks had an off-season like the Stars are having, my e-mail would be jammed with fans demanding to know what in the world was going on. Who do they write? And who needs to be fired?
My next such e-mail about the Stars will be the first.
Lockouts followed by first-round playoff chokes, an NBA Finals appearance from your AAC roommate and a lackluster off-season have a funny way of breeding apathy in the fans you do have.
And further boring the ones you do not.
I am not sure I would devise a long-term strategy based on the recent contents of Jennifer Floyd Engel's inbox, but I can see her point. The Stars have fallen off the map in the local sports market a bit. Quite a bit.
The bad news is that it could mean less and less coverage of the Stars from the local media guys.
The Morning News cut back last season. I'm sure some of it had to do with Belo's woes and some of it had to do with declining interest in the Stars from the casual sports fan.
Outside of the restricted free agents and perhaps some minor league signings, it appears the Stars may be done for now. Unless, that is, Armstrong makes a trade. It's a long way to October, so I don't think there is any rush.
I've noticed there's been some discussion of Armstrong's self-imposed $40 million cap. Let's be clear. That's where he wanted to start the season. It's not a spending target for the season.
My understanding is that he has permission from Tom Hicks to spend up to the limit, but to do it wisely. Doing it wisely, at least in my opinion, does not entail spending right up to it to start the season.
You have to leave yourself some room for both injuries and acquisitions. If you don't, you will paint yourself into a corner later. People can point to the fact that teams did it last season, but many of those teams don't want to do it again this coming season. They learned their lessons.
Five teams ended up going over the cap last season. Not all of them were identified by the league.
Two teams, one being Atlanta, spent over the cap and three, one being New Jersey, went over because of the long-term injury exception.
Just a note, players who have long-term injuries still count against the cap, but teams are allowed to exceed the cap to replace those players. Those replacements can still eat away at your cap space and still push you to the upper limit. Those guys with long-term injuries are not off the books and they don't give you cap play money.
Players on injured reserve count against the cap. IR is not the same as the long-term injury.
Bonuses, even those that may never get paid, can count against the cap. Look at Atlanta. Petr Bondra had the potential to earn $2.9 million in bonuses last season and they were apparently tied with Atlanta's ability to make the playoffs.
Since Atlanta was in the playoff hunt right until the end of the season, those bonuses counted against the Thrashers' cap and hampered their ability to make deals at points during the season. I believe about $1.7 million in those bonuses ended up getting paid to Bondra.
The cap is not a static figure that includes just player salaries. There are a lot of things that go into it and a lot of things that you have to consider when budgeting for the season and beyond. Most of the teams that pushed the cap last season don't want to do it again.
New Jersey is, well, another story. It will be interesting to see how Lou Lamoriello works his way out of his current situation.
Anyway, just because Armstrong wants to start at $40 million doesn't mean he plans on ending at $40 million. He's got from now until March to use whatever space he has. The fact that he isn't using it right now doesn't mean really mean much other than he has a lot of room with which to play. There's nothing wrong with that. Let's see what he does over the course of the next several months and then judge.
11 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Armstrong, Pacific Division
Doug Armstrong answers some questions from the PR staff at dallasstars.com. Outside of the cryptic answers on what he may or may not do with the roster, my favorite segment is this one:
DallasStars.com: Where do you think the Dallas Stars currently stand in the Pacific Division, after other division teams made major acquisitions?
Armstrong: "I would say that if we can improve our forward group, we'll do that, but not at the expense of our long-term beliefs. One of the realities is that we're the team that the rest of the Pacific Division is chasing. We won the division this season and we're the team that had 112 points, so I think we're still the benchmark right now. I give a ton of credit to Anaheim for the great playoff run that they had, but over the six-month schedule, we were the top team in our division and a top team in the West. We're the team that the other clubs are looking to catch on a nightly basis from October to April. Some of our competitors have made some very great strides, but obviously by the records, we were ahead of them."
My translation: Well, we were better than the Ducks last year up until the playoffs. If you look at the whole picture, that means from October to April, we had the better record regardless of what Anaheim did in the playoffs. The Sharks added Joe Thornton, were very good after the acquisition and made it to the second round of the playoffs, but we had a better record if you look at the entire regular season from October to April. In that regard we were better, so they are trying to catch up with us.
Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News has a column today on the shifting power in the Western Conference, most notably that Dallas, Detroit and Colorado are falling back to the pack after years at the top of the mountain. He writes:
The ruling power in the West is hard to identify right now with the Edmonton Oilers having made an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Finals after the Calgary Flames had done similarly in the last Cup.
But the best guess is that the power comes from the Pacific Division and not from Dallas. The Anaheim Ducks, who have made it to two of the last three Western Conference finals, found a way to add Chris Pronger from Edmonton last week.
Without question, Pronger and Scott Niedermayer make the best defensive pair in hockey at a time when having a great twosome that can play 25 to 30 minutes a night is at a premium.
The San Jose Sharks, who have scored six fewer points than Dallas during the last two regular seasons, are probably right behind the Ducks.
After that, where the old guard of Detroit, Colorado and Dallas falls in line is anybody's guess.
I'd say right now that is a fair assessment. As of today I can accept his argument that the Ducks and Sharks are the top two teams in the Pacific and perhaps the West.
08 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Odds & Ends
Perhaps were about to hit a little lull in Stars news. Armstrong still has a few restricted free agents to sign. He's also probably going to find some minor league guys as well. Then there is the search for a top six forward who can provide some offense.
I understand what Armstrong is trying to do, especially with his forwards. It's a deeper group with more balance. We'll have to wait and see how he what additions he makes. Will it make the Stars a better team? Don't know.
A lot of things will have to fall into place when it comes to replacing Jason Arnott and Bill Guerin. What Jeff Halpern, Patrik Stefan and Matthew Barnaby can contribute will play a role. There are other factors as well.
Some of the younger players are going to have to step up. Antti Miettinen is a guy I think can provide some more offensive punch if he put in the right position to do so. How about a Junior Lessard or Loui Eriksson? Time will tell. Armstrong thinks it is time for Steve Ott to contribute more offensively? Will he? Can he?
And you are going to have to hope others don't take a step back. Is Jere Lehtinen up for another career year in goals scored? Will Mike Modano keep pace with last season or drop off a little? Brenden Morrow up for another career season in points scored? It may not be as easy not playing with Jason Arnott night in and night out. How about Jussi Jokinen? Is there a sophomore slump looming?
Just questions to ponder. I don't think you can add up everybody's stats from last season and try to figure it out.
07 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
And they are still a work in progress
If the Stars do end up signing Jeff Halpern and Matthew Barnaby, just consider it two more pieces to the puzzle. Doug Armstrong wanted some grit and he's added some. He wanted a partner for Sergei Zubov and perhaps he has that in Darryl Sydor.
Although they aren't big time offensive threats, Halpern and Barnaby can both add some depth in that department. The way I look at it they bring more offensive balance to the forward group along with their primary attributes.
Halpern is a very good defensive center-penalty killer-faceoff guy who can provide some offense now and then. That has the potential to make the team's third line a checking line that can do more than just check.
Barnaby's a big time upgrade over guys like Nathan Perrot and Jeremy Stevenson. Barnaby can play every night and he's shown some offensive ability here over the past few seasons. Sure, he's a jerk. But now he's our jerk who can play on the fourth line and chip in a with a goal now and then and do all that other stuff he does.
Now, of course, the Stars need some quality offensive talent to put up on one of the higher lines. We have to wait and see what Doug Armstrong does in that regard.
I am cautiously optimistic with what he has done so far, but I reserve judgement until I see how all the pieces fall together. What I see right now, I like. But I still see a couple of big holes, namely on the quality offensive side. The good news is that he has the cap space and the assets to make some moves. So, time will tell.
04 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
THN on the Stars
Here's an analysis of the Stars' weekend from Adam Proteau of The Hockey News. Proteau lists the Stars among the weekend's losers.
After their horrendous first-round playoff exit – yes, we’re still bitter we picked them to win a Cup last year – the Stars lost two thirds of their second line in two summer weeks when Jason Arnott signed with Nashville and Bill Guerin was banished to the big buyout ice rink in the sky. Dallas also lost late-season trade pickup Willie Mitchell to Vancouver, then filled his roster spot by re-acquiring Darryl Sydor from Tampa Bay. Which would be fine, except it’s not 1999 anymore. Yikes, y’all.
You can read Proteau's other winners and losers here.
03 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Still a work in progress
The Dallas Stars are still a work in progress. With the additon of Darryl Sydor, acquired Sunday in a trade for Tampa Bay, they now have eight defensemen. With Jason Arnott signing with Nashville Sunday (five years, $22.5 million) they have a hole at the No. 2 center spot.
They still have cap some cap room and, with the extra defenseman, the means to get some scoring punch up front. They can do that either via free agency and/or via the trade route. We'll just have to see how it plays out.
There was no way the Stars were going to match the Predators' deal for Arnott. The contract is just too long. The Stars could have handled the money, but the term was another issue.
I am not surprised at the Sydor deal. Tampa Bay was in a cap bind and he was one of the guys said to be on the block. That's one way to find guys. Look for for teams that need to dump salary and then cut a deal. The Stars gave up a fourth round pick in 2008. A pretty cheap price to pay for good player like Sydor, whose cap cost is a little over $2 million and is only signed for next season.
Does he make the Stars defense better? Prboably not. But from a value standpoint, he's a better money deal than Willie Mitchell a $3.5 million for four years.
But the deal gives Armstrong the ability to make more deals moving forward. At least that will keep things interesting here in the near future.
02 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Day One
Free agency has been open almost 12 hours and the Stars have stayed quiet. Not a peep, really, as lots of big signings happen around the league. Chara, Jovanovski, Blake and some others on defense. Marc Savard gets a nice haul from the Bruins. The Devils get Patrik Elias at $6 million per year, but sign him for seven years. That's right seven years, $42 million.
I don't think the Stars were going to want to match the four-year, $14 million Willie Mitchell got from Vancouver.
There's a lot of money and some long-term contracts getting tossed around and the Stars haven't gotten involved. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has paid any attention to what Doug Armstrong has been saying all week. He said he wasn't going to hand out long-term deals to UFA's this summer and he stuck to his word. If you are surprised, you weren't paying attention.
Armstrong is right. You have to be careful when you start throwing money around in long-term deals in a salary cap system. It may look great now, but it can come back to haunt you. You just can't keep buying guys out either. In the long run you only clear about 1/3 of that cap space from your books.
You can't think just short-term, you have to look long-term as well. It's not all about just this coming season, but also about next season, the season after that and so on.
You have to consider the drop in the age of free agency in the coming years. The fact that the reason the cap increased $5 million this time around is because the cap was set artificially low last season because of low revenue projections. All that has to be taken into account. You just can't throw money around anymore. Even if other teams do it.
If Armstrong can find a good bargain in free agency, he'll go for it. If he needs to make some trades, he can go that route. He's got some young players who might be able to make contributions, but in order for them to do that they have to be given a chance to play.
If it doesn't work out, you can make trades during the season. You don't put the finishing touches on your team during a few days in July. It's a long process that can all the way through next spring.
01 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
Free agency is here
Free agency arrives today. It will be interesting. Two different takes on the Stars situation in the local papers this morning.
Mike Heika of the Morning News has a good story that includes some speculation on whom the Stars may pursue, including the big name on defense in Zdeno Chara.
David Sessions of the Star-Telegram has a more sobering piece in which Stars GM Doug Armstrong says the team is in a "transitional period" and that the Stars won't be handing out any splashy long-term deals to unrestricted free agents.
Here's an excerpt:
Armstrong and owner Tom Hicks have made their mission clear: stay 10 percent under the $44 million salary cap when the season begins and look to fill out the roster with younger players.
"We're starting a transitional period," Armstrong said.
To hit the $40 million mark, Dallas has at least $5 million to spend on free agents, including restricted free agents such as Steve Ott and Trevor Daley.
"We just want to be very comfortable that we're getting good value for the money," Armstrong said. "[Free agency is] not going to be a win-lose thing for us."
Hicks backs Armstrong in saying the Stars aren't looking to make a blockbuster deal this free-agency period, at least in terms of money and term.
"In the new NHL, a GM's got to be really smart," Hicks said. "It can't be about any one player, because you can easily get yourself in a box that would hurt the team for many years to come."
Nothing new, but just confirmation of what Armstrong has been saying the past week.
Anyway, if anything happens the first few hours of free agency there won't be any updates on the site. That will come late afternoon or early evening. I will be at a funeral. Not my own, obviously.
01 July '06 - - default| - § ¶
