The playoff race: A look at some numbers

Friday, January 23, 2009-12:57:am
/Andrew's Dallas Stars Page                            

Sometimes it may seem like the Stars haven't gained a lot of ground in the Western Conference standings over the past couple months or that it is slow going, but in reality they have made some good strides.

The Stars have gained ground on every team in the West since November 30 except for the big four in the conference - San Jose, Detroit, Calgary and Chicago - and the Phoenix Coyotes. And the only reason they've lost two points in the standings to the Coyotes is that Phoenix has played two extra games since the last day of November.

As for gaining ground on that final playoff spot it does, on the surface at least, appear to be slow going. Heading into play on November 30 the Stars were six points out eighth place. Now, despite going 13-7-3 over their last 23 games, the Stars are still four points out of eighth place. Just a two point gain. Why? Because the team they are chasing has changed.

Back in late November it was the Nashville Predators who were in eighth place, but they've slumped and dropped to 14 place. The Stars have picked up ten points on the Predators and moved four points ahead of them. 

But moving down into eighth place now is Anaheim. The Stars were 11 points behind the Ducks in late November and have picked up seven points on them and cut their lead to four points.

That's part of the problem with a tight playoff race. There's not one team to chase, but several. Phoenix and Edmonton have had very good records since November 30 and they've been able to move into a playoff spot as a result. Teams that were far ahead of the Stars in late November have slipped and dropped into the lower playoff spots for now.

Here are the records of teams in the Western Conference in games since November 30. They are ranked by points percentage during that stretch.

Points percentage

One advantage the Stars will have coming out of the All-Star break is that they will have games in hand. Of course, those games only have value if you actually pick up points.

One way to take games in hand out of the equation as far as the current picture is to look at how teams have performed in the games they have played to date. You can do that by looking at points percentage, or what percentage of the available points a team has collected. In the case of the Stars, they have collected 47 of a possible 90 points for a .522 points percentage.

When you look at the standings this way they are in 9th place and are chasing 8th place Vancouver and 7th place Minnesota. They are basically in a dead heat with Columbus and Anaheim.

They have gained ground on all those teams since November 30 as well.

Here's a look at the Western Conference standings with teams ranked based on points percentage.